PRS’ coverage of the Americas in November includes reports on Brazil, Costa Rica, Suriname, and Uruguay, where control of the presidency is to be decided in a run-off contest later this month between Yamandú Orsi, the candidate of the left-leaning Broad Front, and Álvaro Delgado, the standard-bearer for the incumbent coalition of center-right and right-wing parties. The analysis will discuss the implications of the winning candidate’s platform for investor risk, taking into account the obstacles posed by the failure of either of the main alliances to claim a lower-house majority at last month’s legislative elections, leaving the next administration dependent on the support of Sovereign Identity, a new anti-establishment party that won two seats and will control the balance of power in the 99-member Chamber of Deputies.

Turning to Eastern Europe, PRS will issue new reports on Russia and Poland, as well as an update on Belarus, ahead of the next presidential election to be held on January 26 that will invariably see Lukashenko reinstated for a seventh five-year term. As well as focusing on internal stability in light of the rubber-stamping parliamentary elections that took place in February following an opposition boycott, and the depth of anger that was demonstrated at the time against the tyrannical regime, we also delve into the tight, but also nuanced relationship between Minsk and Moscow.

President Lukashenko has continued to support his compatriot in the Grand Kremlin Palace, maintaining a strong defense alliance, but also calling for peace negotiations with Ukraine while simultaneously threatening to permit the use of Russian nuclear weapons situated on Belarussian soil should any foreign powers encroach on its own territory. Among the various risks stemming from this relationship is the prospect of rising fertilizer prices hitting the global agricultural sector after Lukashenko recently hinted at colluding with Russia to influence potash prices by lowering production approximately 10%; the two countries combined are responsible for some 35% of global supply. An assessment of the country’s economic and fiscal risks follows, highlighting the benefits of remaining tied to Russia in terms of GDP growth and fiscal sustainability, but also the risks if, as expected, the Russian economy cools down.

This month our coverage of Sub-Saharan Africa features a revised analysis of risk in Zambia and takes the political temperature in Namibia ahead of the presidential and national assembly elections scheduled for November 27, which may turn out to be the most significant in living memory for the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) that has ruled the country without interruption since its independence in 1990. With Heige Geingob stepping down as president after serving two terms, it is left to vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah to stake a claim, although she faces stiff opposition from Panduleni Itula, who was expelled from SWAPO for standing previously as an independent candidate and is now leading the Independent Patriots for Change, building on the antipathy towards creeping authoritarianism and the government’s economic failings, of which youth unemployment is a particular problem.

Our report looks into the prospect of SWAPO succumbing to its first defeat, the main policy differences between the two leading candidates, and the possibility of a SWAPO dominated legislature but with a non-partisan president. The analysis rounds out by assessing current prospects for the extractive industries driving economic growth and how this feeds into other macro-fiscal indicators and the country’s financing requirement in light of the maturing sovereign Eurobond in 2025.

Coverage of Asia features report on South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Japan, where neither a change of leadership nor the purge of members tied to a damaging corruption scandal spared the incumbent LDP from punishment by voters at an early election held in late October. The alliance of the LDP and the smaller Komeito failed to win a parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years and will depend on the support of the conservative DPP and the populist Ishin to approve legislation on a case-by-case basis. The report will examine the outlook for stability within the LDP in light of likely challenges to Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership of the party and what the governing coalition’s diminished strength means for the progress of ongoing efforts to revitalize a sclerotic economy. PRS will also discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 for Japan’s relations with the US and Tokyo’s strategy for dealing with China’s aggressive expansionism.

The PRS Group: Challenging Borders, Challenging Risk

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