Ukraine, Russia, and the Economic Costs of Conflict

With the one-year mark of the war now passing, it’s worthwhile to consider some of the empirical work that has been done to determine the macroeconomic costs of conflict.

In this interesting piece from the IMF’s Working Paper series – using our ICRG data in part – the authors find GDP per capita is about 28% lower ten years after the onset of a conflict. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25% ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) % lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run.

The study can be found here: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/06/26/The-Macroeconomic-Costs-of-Conflict-49515

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