Trump, Putin, and the Future of Ukraine: What Does Geopolitical Risk Tell Us About Conflict?
As Trump pushes hard for a deal with Putin over the war in Ukraine (and the EU now looking for a collective response to its ‘existential’ crisis), a just released study by Brandon Parsons (et al) from the Graziadio Business School at Pepperdine University, takes an incredibly detailed, nuanced, and empirical look at the connection between the nature of regimes and the types of internal conflict they engender/shape/quell.
Using our ICRG data series, the study reveals that factors such as Government Stability (as measured by the ICRG) are better indicators of smaller-scale forms of internal conflict than the political regime type. Moreover, scenarios of acute internal conflict, cultural tension, and government instability serve as more reliable indicators, implying that these elements eclipse the stabilizing influence of a regime’s progression toward a more inclusive government.
Have a look: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Internal-conflict-and-ICRG-political-regime-1990-to-2021_tbl1_384671768
With over 7.5 million back tested risk pints – and appearing in just under published works – PRS’ data series continues to produce meaningful empirical findings, profitable asset allocations, and informed corporate planning and valuation.
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CHRISTOPHER MCKEE, PHD CHIEF EXECUTIVE
Christopher McKee is PRS’ CEO and Owner. An international political economist, global investor, entrepreneur, and author, Chris received his PhD from Queen’s University (Canada) and has been involved in the field of geopolitical risk, limited recourse financing, and private sector development for the past 25 years.
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