The Impact of a Reduced Role for Hezbollah in Lebanon: What Are Our Analysts Saying?

“The removal of Hezbollah would almost certainly deal an immediate hammer-blow, with the loss of income from Iran, but longer-term it would result in increased western aid and natural gas exploitation. In the meantime, the lack of investment and aid, and the slow pace of reforms are all preventing the country from reaching its potential. Coping with the displaced Lebanese from the south, and the 750,000 or so Syrians seeking refuge is putting enormous pressure on scarce resources, and with no immediate resolution in sight prospects for the economy are worsening.”

Have a look at PRS-ICRGs latest risk data and narrative on Lebanon.  Consider the trajectory of the two dozen geopolitical risk metrics used to assess the country, as well as the dozen economic/financial risks.  Quasi-Type 2 errors are included over a one-year and five-year horizon.

Over six million individually and independently backtested geopolitical datapoints extending to the early 1980s.

A series that has appeared in close to 1,000 published journals and book chapters.

Our data drives.

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