The Dying Days of Justin Trudeau: What’s the Connection Between Geopolitics, Electoral Change, and National Outcomes?
As Canada appears to be witnessing the closing days of Justin Trudeau, the impact of electoral change on the country should be profound.
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change.
To understand how electoral change affects national outcomes, this study that appears in the National Bureau of Economic Research and which uses our ICRG data in part, considers all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018.
The paper documents the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy.
Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, the study shows that turnovers improve several measures of country performance, including, policy decisions, perceived corruption, and accountability.
Have a look:
(https://www.nber.org/papers/w29766)
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