Coming Soon, May 2023

PRS’ coverage of the Americas this month includes reports on Nicaragua and Brazil, where President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva completed 100 days in office in early April. The analysis will assess how Lula’s accomplishments to date stack up against his ambitious goals and discuss the implications of his agenda for the climate for investment and trade, noting as well how the frequently contradictory preferences of the parties on which the administration depends for a congressional majority are likely to shape the policy-making process.

Coverage of Western Europe features reports on Ireland and Turkey, where a presidential election this month is shaping up to be a closely fought battle that could bring the end of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long tenure in power. The report will focus on the implications of the outcome, whatever the result, for economic policies and the country’s diplomatic strategy, both of which have been closely controlled by Erdoğan for nearly two decades. The analysis will also include a discussion of what the outcome of concurrent parliamentary elections means for political stability over the next five years and, in the event of a victory for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the opposition Nation Alliance, the possibility that Erdoğan might not willingly surrender power.

PRS will also look looks at the current political and economic risks affecting Iceland. As in other countries, very high inflation has prompted the central bank to tighten monetary policy, and our brief update analyses the effect this is having on the Icelandic krona and the country’s economic growth prospects. We also look into the impact in terms of political popularity for the tripartite coalition, which intends to serve out the remainder of its second term through to the next elections in 2025 but has witnessed tensions rising lately. This has been not so much driven by policymaking issues to bolster the economy, but the actions of Justice Minister Jon Gunnarsson, hailing from a different party to that of Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir, who has become embroiled in two separate controversies and has had to face a parliamentary vote of no-confidence.

In Eastern Europe, the spotlight is on Russia, where President Vladimir Putin is signaling his continued full commitment to the military campaign in Ukraine, despite a concerted effort by the west to punish the Moscow regime for undermining peace in Europe. The report will examine the implications of Russia’s relegation to pariah status for both political and economic stability in the near term, and how both the war and the international response might shape Russia’s role on the world stage and in the global economy over the longer term.

Our attention will also be on the current prospects for Lithuania, which has felt acutely vulnerable since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and where a nationalist stance has not translated into support for the three-party coalition, with Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte’s centre-right, conservative party, Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats, suffering a sharp slide in the popularity stakes to the center-left opposition, led by the Social Democratic Party and including the Union of Democrats “For Lithuania”, which was formed early in 2022. Our report investigates the impact of the recent parliamentary passage of a controversial Law on the State Border and Protection as well as other risks concerning Lithuania’s relations with China and Russia, and shortcomings on corruption. Our report rounds out with an assessment of the economy, with inflation high and borrowing rates rising.

Turning to sub-Saharan Africa, PRS will issue reports on Gabon and Nigeria, where Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the incumbent APC, has been confirmed as the winner of the February presidential election, a victory abetted by the strong third-place showing of Peter Obi, who defected from the main opposition PDP and won more than 25% of the vote as the candidate of the Labour Party. The APC’s retention of comfortable majorities in both legislative chambers will facilitate the task of governing, but dealing with an opposition that contends his mandate was fraudulently obtained and otherwise navigating the cross-cutting regional, religious, and ethnic divisions that have long troubled Nigeria will ensure no shortage of political risks for Tinubu. The analysis will include an examination of the policy agenda of the new government, which takes office this month, with a particular emphasis on how Tinubu plans to balance a discontented population’s demands for relief from economic hardship with pressure to rein in a fiscal deficit amid a spike in borrowing costs that prompted both Moody’s and Fitch to downgrade the sovereign credit rating deeper into junk territory over the last six months.

Coverage of East Asia and the Pacific this month features reports on Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, where an apparent attempt on the life of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in mid-April has at least temporarily boosted his popular support, which was weakened by revelations about close ties between the governing LDP and the controversial Unification Church that followed the assassination of Shinzo Abe last July. The report will focus on the challenges that Kishida must meet if he hopes to sustain the revival of his popularity, which to the extent that it is attributable to the government’s policies, is largely down to advances on the foreign policy front.

The analysis will assess the policy options open to the government as it attempts to bolster the post-pandemic economic recovery without undermining the central bank’s efforts to manage inflation and steady a yen than has been unusually volatile over the last 18 months. PRS will also discuss the ongoing debate the restart Japan’s of idled nuclear reactors to ensure energy security and chronic foreign policy concerns, notably the seemingly intractable North Korea problem and China’s pressing threats towards Taiwan.  

Finally, our coverage of the Middle East and North Africa includes a timely update on the risks to investors in Lebanon where a political stalemate is preventing the appointment of a President to replace Michel Aoun, whose term expired in October, as well as a permanent governing administration with powers to embark on reforms. Our report assesses the prospects of Sleiman Frangieh, the Hezbollah-backed candidate for the presidency, and whether international mediation, not least from Qatar, can break the deadlock that is preventing Lebanon from receiving much-needed financing from the IMF and substantial aid pledged by international donors. Our report goes on to assess the state of an economy in decline for several years, worsened by the fallout from the pandemic and the Beirut Port explosions in 2020, not to mention the political crisis devaluing the currency that is creating a huge inflation problem.