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Can Geopolitics Explain the Fall of Assad in Syria? The Interplay Between Culture, Religion, and Governance

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“The abrupt and unusual diplomatic mission by Kristalina Georgieva underscored the International Monetary Fund’s sense of urgency about preserving Middle East stability, well before events this week in Syria further showed just how fragile its governments can be. Rulers of economies that have seen precious few gains in living standards since the Arab Spring erupted 15 years ago are looking on with unease as yet another fire burns in a region already blighted by conflict in Gaza and disruption in the Red Sea.”

This paragraph in Bloomberg is instructive and gives rise to a host of questions based on the interplay between ethnicity, governance, and conflict – factors that are key in explaining much of the conflict in the Middle East and the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria.

In this just released piece by two esteemed academics, our ICRG data are used to analyze how cultural tensions (i.e., ethnic and religious) affect various internal conflicts (e.g., civil war to civil disorder) across different regions. The study also examines the role of governance in mitigating the effects of cultural tensions on the emergence and escalation of conflict.

The conclusions are discerning and unique. It’s worth exploring as it suggests some consequences for stability, regional hegemony, economic development (entre autres choses): (https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/48799346.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A1ebb5ca25f2c69e2c4946c2a39cad3f5&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_search_gsv2%2Fcontrol&initiator=&acceptTC=1)

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