How Does Geopolitics Shape Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets’ Resiliance?
With US inflation data expected to remain firm – and the fate of further rate cuts hanging in the balance – investors are often keen to understand what determines the performance of emerging markets during the Fed’s tightening and easing cycles.
This study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research – and using our ICRG data – looked at how macroeconomic and institutional conditions in emerging markets at the beginning of a cycle explain their overall resilience during each cycle.
More specifically, the baseline cross-sectional regressions examined how those conditions affect three measures of resilience, namely bilateral exchange rate against the USD, exchange rate market pressure, and country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI).
Interesting material. Have a look.
(https://www.nber.org/papers/w32303)pi
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The PRS Group
CHRISTOPHER MCKEE, PHD CHIEF EXECUTIVE
Christopher McKee is PRS’ CEO and Owner. An international political economist, global investor, entrepreneur, and author, Chris received his PhD from Queen’s University (Canada) and has been involved in the field of geopolitical risk, limited recourse financing, and private sector development for the past 25 years.
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