From Syria to Romania to South Korea: How is Geopolitical Risk Shaping the Present Conflicts?
Given the unfolding conflict in Syria (in addition to very interesting developments in Romania and South Korea, entre autres choses), the extent to which our ICRG data has helped shed light on the various manifestations of internal turmoil is instructive.
From the quality of ‘institutions,’ to the level of development aid, to the protection of civil liberties and the rule of law, the explanatory power of the ICRG has been significant. (See some entries in the published literature in JSTOR: https://lnkd.in/eYCJV9tq)
In all three countries of present concern (Syria, South Korea, Romania), the relevant risk metrics began deteriorating (suggesting more risk) over six months ago, underscoring the predictive capacity of that was documented in the landmark study by professors from Duke, Columbia, and the University of Washington, and originally published in the Journal of International Business Studies. (https://lnkd.in/egs93myk) and later reproduced by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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