Did You Know…
IMF researchers used ICRG’s composite risk scores as the main proxy for overall country risk, finding that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than non-borrowing countries, and that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter. See “IMF Lending and Banking Crises,” Luca Papi, Andrea F. Presbitero and Alberto Zazzaro, IMF Working Paper (15/19), Jan. 2015.
Below is a sample of the data utilized, taken from the full data table covering 140 countries:
TABLE 1 – COUNTRY RISK, RANKED BY COMPOSITE RISK RATING
(February 2017 versus March 2016)
| Rank in 02/17 | Country | Composite Risk Rating 02/17 | Composite Risk Rating 03/16 | 02/17 versus 03/16 | Rank in 03/16 |
| Very Low Risk | |||||
| 1 | Switzerland | 88.8 | 88.3 | 0.5 | 2 |
| 2 | Norway | 87.8 | 89 | -1.3 | 1 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 86.8 | 86.8 | 0 | 3 |
| Low Risk | |||||
| 18 | Austria | 79.8 | 79 | 0.8 | 21 |
| 19 | Czech Republic | 79.5 | 78 | 1.5 | 25 |
| 20 | Malta | 79.5 | 77.3 | 2.3 | 27 |
| Moderate Risk | |||||
| 61 | Morocco | 69.5 | 69.8 | -0.3 | 65 |
| 62 | Guatemala | 69.3 | 70.5 | -1.3 | 62 |
| 66 | Paraguay | 69.3 | 67.3 | 2 | 76 |
| High Risk | |||||
| 118 | Gambia | 59.5 | 61.8 | -2.3 | 111 |
| 119 | Lebanon | 58.5 | 60.8 | -2.3 | 116 |
| 120 | Ethiopia | 58.3 | 58.8 | -0.5 | 121 |
| Very High Risk | |||||
| 136 | Sudan | 48.8 | 48.3 | 0.5 | 137 |
| 137 | Libya | 48 | 52.5 | -4.5 | 132 |
| 138 | Somalia | 46.5 | 41 | 5.5 | 140 |
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